“cal vs stanford” “over/under” 2025 before:2025-11-19

Date: November 18, 2025 Author: Sports Desk

The 128th edition of the “Big Game” returns to The Farm this Saturday as the California Golden Bears (6-4) travel to face their arch-rivals, the Stanford Cardinal (3-7). While the records suggest a mismatch, rivalry games—especially one with the history of the Stanford Axe—often defy the spread.

Here is a complete breakdown of the betting lines, the key over/under analysis, and a prediction for the 2025 Cal vs. Stanford showdown.

Game Information

• Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET

• Location: Stanford Stadium (Stanford, CA)

• TV: ACC Network

• Weather: Cool, clear evening expected (temps in low 50s)

Cal vs. Stanford 2025 Odds

Odds courtesy of major sportsbooks as of Nov. 18, 2025.

Opening Line Movement: The line opened with Cal as a 3-point favorite and has ticked up slightly to -3.5 or -4 at some shops, signaling early money on the Golden Bears. The total has remained relatively stable, hovering between 46.5 and 47.5.

The “Over/Under” Breakdown: 47.5 Points

The total of 47.5 is the key number for bettors this week. Here is the case for both sides.

The Case for the OVER

• Cal’s Passing Attack: Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has shown flashes of brilliance this season. If the Bears’ offensive line can hold up, they have the receivers to exploit a Stanford secondary that has given up explosive plays throughout 2025.

• Turnover Variance: Rivalry games often lead to sloppy play. A defensive touchdown or a short field caused by a turnover can quickly inflate the score, pushing a defensive struggle into the 50s.

The Case for the UNDER (The Smart Play?)

• Stanford’s Offensive Struggles: The Cardinal offense has been inconsistent all year, averaging just 17.5 points per game (ranked 129th nationally). Against a solid Cal defense allowing roughly 25 points per game, Stanford may struggle to contribute their share of the points needed to hit the Over.

• Rivalry Intensity: “The Big Game” historically trends toward defensive battles when played at Stanford. The familiarity between the coaching staffs often leads to conservative play-calling in the first half.

• Pace of Play: Stanford knows they cannot win a shootout. Expect the Cardinal to try to establish the run, milk the clock, and shorten the game to keep it close.

Betting Trends to Know

• Cal Dominance: The Bears have won the last four meetings (2021-2024), covering the spread in three of those contests.

• Under Trends: The “Under” has cashed in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two schools.

• Home Dog: Stanford is 3-5 ATS as an underdog this season, but home underdogs in rivalry week historically cover at a 54% clip.

Prediction & Best Bet

While Cal is the better team on paper, laying points on the road in a rivalry game is always risky. The most valuable angle on the board appears to be the Total.

Stanford’s offense lacks the firepower to turn this into a shootout, and Cal’s defense is disciplined enough to force long, sustained drives rather than giving up quick scores. Unless there are multiple defensive touchdowns, this game has “24-20” or “27-17” written all over it.

Rankable Pick: UNDER 47.5 Score Prediction: Cal 24, Stanford 17